Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 85

Houston Texans 10 – Chicago Bears 7

(:50) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to CHI 25, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-E.Royal to CHI 25 for no gain (31-C.James, 52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -2.94 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.85 EP
69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 85, worth -4.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model