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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.26 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP