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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.02 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model