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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 48

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model