Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 86

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

(4:43) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to BAL 43, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-D.Hester to BAL 36 for -7 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model