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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 50 yards to BAL 26, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-D.Hester to BAL 34 for 8 yards (20-C.Graham).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model