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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 78

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:59) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to BUF 35, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 22-R.Bush.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 78, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model