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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 28-T.West pushed ob at BUF 42 for no gain (55-J.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.17 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model