4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to BUF 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 15-B.Tate to BUF 28 for 21 yards (46-M.Cox).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.82 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP