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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.81 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.66 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model