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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(10:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left end ran ob at BAL 31 for 6 yards. PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model