Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(11:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to BUF 32, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.13 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model