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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 8-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DEN 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.52 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.11 EP
KICK -2.16 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP