4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 8-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.91 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP