Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 72

Denver Broncos 16 – Carolina Panthers 10

(4:59) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to CAR 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model