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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 18 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(:26) 8-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to DEN 32, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model