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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.89 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model