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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 61

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 8-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.30 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 20, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model