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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 15

Denver Broncos 10 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model