Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 53

Carolina Panthers 7 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 8-B.Nortman punts 28 yards to DEN 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-J.Norwood to CAR 14 for 61 yards (97-M.Addison). J.Norwood's 61-yd punt return sets a new Super Bowl record. The previous record was 45-yds by John Taylor in Super Bowl XXIII.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.84 EP
70% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -3.13 EP

KICK -2.33 EP

14% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
86% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model