Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

(1:56) 2-D.Butler punts 43 yards to CAR 12, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.56 EP
66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model