Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 34 – Arizona Cardinals 15

(13:06) 8-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to ARI 36, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model