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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Carolina Panthers 27

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to CAR 21, Center-82-M.Leach, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP