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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 24 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 9-G.Gano 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP