Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 77

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

(13:39) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to CAR 28, Center-82-M.Leach. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for 6 yards (59-A.Fua).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model