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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 23

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 8-B.McManus 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.67 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model