Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 96

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(5:12) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to PIT 31, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.50 EP
61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 96, worth -5.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model