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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 60

Denver Broncos 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 4-B.Colquitt punts 57 yards to PIT 3, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster. DEN-31-O.Bolden was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.53 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 19, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model