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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 90

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to DEN 47, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -2.79 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model