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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 62

Denver Broncos 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 4-B.Colquitt punts 51 yards to PIT 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-M.Wheaton MUFFS catch, touched at PIT 11, ball out of bounds at PIT 6.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model