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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to DEN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.23 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP