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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 37

Denver Broncos 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:16) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 10-E.Sanders (23-M.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model