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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.90 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model