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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 18

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-C.Catanzaro 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +2.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model