Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 10

(11:01) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to ARI 20, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.56 EP
69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model