Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:03) 2-D.Butler punts 51 yards to GB 27, Center-82-M.Leach. 33-M.Hyde to GB 47 for 20 yards (30-S.Taylor). PENALTY on GB-51-N.Palmer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.05 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model