Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 14 at the 64

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Houston Texans 0

(6:33) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.26 EP
73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model