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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 24

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hoyer sacked at KC 29 for -5 yards (97-A.Bailey). FUMBLES (97-A.Bailey), and recovers at KC 29. 7-B.Hoyer to KC 29 for no gain (55-D.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP