Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(14:08) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to KC 23, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-F.Hammond to HOU 46 for 31 yards (21-D.Morris). PENALTY on KC-30-J.Fleming, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.01 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model