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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 5-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP