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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 73

Washington Commanders 5 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:28) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to GB 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-35-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model