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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 78

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 5

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to WAS 32, Center-59-R.Lovato, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model