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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 32 – Washington Commanders 18

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.13 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model