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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 77

Washington Commanders 18 – Green Bay Packers 32

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at WAS 17 for -6 yards (53-N.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.00 EP