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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 19 at the 46

Washington Commanders 18 – Green Bay Packers 32

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to GB 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-96-H.Bates.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.24 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.09 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model