Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 74

Washington Commanders 18 – Green Bay Packers 24

(3:15) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to GB 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-93-T.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.98 EP
62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model