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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 45
Green Bay Packers 17 – Washington Commanders 18
What Actually Happened
(5:43) 27-E.Lacy left end pushed ob at WAS 34 for 11 yards (41-W.Blackmon).
The Three Options
GO
+0.95 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.64 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK
-1.39 EP
- 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT
-0.57 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
