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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 49

Washington Commanders 34 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.70 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP