Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 76

Washington Commanders 24 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(1:44) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 24 for 4 yards (96-H.Bates). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.05 EP
75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model