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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(6:20) (Punt formation) 38-J.Heath up the middle to DAL 44 for 2 yards (96-H.Bates). Rush off fake punt. Direct snap to Heath.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.34 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model